4th of July Weather Forecast: Sunny Grilling or Thunderous Thrilling? | The Old Farmer's Almanac

4th of July Weather Forecast: Sunny Grilling or Thunderous Thrilling?

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Mother Nature Brings Her Own Fireworks Show this July!

The Editors
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The 4th of July falls on a Monday this year, making it a long weekend for many. Will Mother Nature grace us with good grilling weather? Or will she put on a few “thunderous” displays of her own? Find out in our 4th of July Weather Forecast!

4th of July Forecast: Sunny Grilling or Thunderous Thrilling?

This Independence Day will be the perfect one for finding a pool, pond, or beach across the Southeast, where it will be sunny and hot for the holiday weekend. Much of Texas and Oklahoma will also be sunny and warm on the 4th, which means that you’ll have great grilling weather—break out the barbecue! (For inspiration, here are some of our favorite grilling recipes!) In most areas farther north, the 4th will be cooler than normal, but still seasonable for mid-summer (expect shorts and t-shirt weather).

As is often the case for July, Mother Nature has planned a few fireworks shows of her own to celebrate America’s Independence Day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes and Appalachians up through New England. Thunder and lightning will also be a possibility from the Upper Midwest and across to the northern Plains, as well as in parts of the Rockies.

While monsoon thunderstorms will dot the Desert Southwest, the West Coast will generally be sunny, with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and the opposite in the Pacific Southwest. Alaska will be dry as well, while a few showers will move across Hawaii in early July.

With the dry conditions that are common in the West in July, be very careful with any fireworks, as even a small spark on the dry ground can ultimately lead to a wildfire.

→ Read all about the history of Independence Day and discover some of our favorite 4th of July recipes!

Patriotic scene with statue of liberty
Image by ArtBackground/Shutterstock

What About the Rest of July? 

Overall, July 2022 will be warmer than normal across much of the U.S., although temperatures will be near- or below-normal from the High Plains through the Upper Midwest and parts of the Ohio Valley. While New England can expect a wet July, much of the rest of the eastern third of the country will be on the drier side. Much of the Plains and the West will be dry as well. Alaska and Hawaii will both be warm, with near- or below-normal rainfall.

Across Canada, the warmest areas this month will be in the Maritimes and British Columbia, with temperatures near or slightly below normal elsewhere. Precipitation will generally be above normal, with the exception of locales in the Northwest Territories.

To see two months of forecasts for your region, check out our long-range forecasts! Plus, keep an eye on our 5-day forecasts to see what’s coming up this week.